Russia-Ukraine Conflict Viewed Through the Lens of Complexity and Changing World Order

 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict Viewed Through the Lens of Complexity and Changing World Order

 

K.M. Venkat Narayan

 

         As Ukraine reels under and resists a sustained onslaught by Russian transgression, the world community is shocked and moved by the brutality. The toll on civilians, displacement of nearly a million people, and the pictures of utter destruction have pained people across the world.  Yet, the world at large remains lost about how the situation can be controlled or what set of actions might work.

There can be no justification for this inhumane war and the utmost human suffering that have been unleashed on Ukraine by Putin.  The Russian invasion of Ukraine disregards all international conventions and rule of law. The atrocity has to be unequivocally condemned. But beyond condemnation, what will work and what will not?

To fully understand the crisis and to evolve effective policy, it is important to examine the event from the lens of complexity and the changing world order.  

         First, starting from the end of the Cold War, and the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russia has increasingly been uneasy about the eastward expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and of the European Union (EU), and of the weakening of the Warsaw Pact.  These together with the spread of democracy into the former Communist nations of Eastern Europe have threatened Russia, which has increasingly felt a loss of pride and power. As John Mearsheimer of the University Chicago wrote in Foreign Affairs in 2014, contrary to conventional wisdom that places the entire blame on Russian aggression, the policies and actions of the liberal world order of promoting democracy, NATO and EU expansion eastward, led by western Europe and the United States, have threatened and provoked Putin. His aggressive actions on Crimea, Georgia, and Ukraine all probably stem from this mindset of paranoia and fear. Against this context of distrust and fear, it is difficult to engage Putin in any meaningful negotiation or for him to even listen.

         Second, the best instrument for international negotiations and peace that we have, the United Nations (UN), seems to be faltering and losing credibility and teeth. Established in the aftermath of World War II, the UN largely reflects the power structure and priorities of that time, and still retains disproportionate and veto powers in the hands of five countries, the United States, Russia, Britain, France, and China. Furthermore, over the seventy-seven years of its existence, there have been numerous unfortunate instances of the agency’s policies driven by the interests and values of western Europe and the United States. It has also been the case that the agency has not been consistent in its condemnation of transgressions of international law, and of human rights, and is viewed by several nations of being tight-lipped toward some nations, especially, powerful ones, such as the United States, while being unduly harsh toward others with political positions in opposition to the western nations.  This perception of the UN as an agency dominated by Western Europe and its allies has impaired its ability to act effectively and collectively. Even in the recent vote condemning Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, countries representing the majority of the world population either abstained (as was the case with China and India) or stood behind Russia.

         Third, the world is changing rapidly in terms of economic, military, and cultural powers. The rapid growth across the low- and middle-income countries (LMIC), nations that has been gated out of the industrial revolution during the 19^th and 20^th centuries, has begun to change the global landscape. This is altering the global dynamics of power, with the two most populated countries of the world, China and India, rapidly ascending in influence. China is already a leading economy and military power, and India though some years behind China is also on that trajectory, as are numerous Asian nations. This means the rise of Asia as an important region of the world in terms of global strategies. Simultaneously, several other LMICs in Africa and Latin America are also experiencing rapid economic development. According to the International Monetary Fund, the emerging markets (e.g., China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Russia, Mexico) will dominate the world’s top ten economies by 2050. China, India, and US, in that order, will be the leading economies, and there will be a relative decline of the Western European economies (e.g., Germany, Britain, France). These changes together with the decrease of the unipolar power, influence, and credibility of the United States all mean that the configuration of the new world order will look very different.

         With this context in mind, here are some short- and long-term predictions for how the Russia-Ukraine conflict may play out, and how crisis, such as these, may accelerate changes to the world order and collective governance.

Short-term

In the immediate short-term, we might anticipate the following four things.

 

First, Putin is not going to occupy Ukraine, as he will not want to repeat the mistakes of the Soviet Union in Afghanistan or that of the United States in Afghanistan and Iraq. He will instead take over Pro-Russia parts, encircle Ukraine, and plant a pro-Russia government. This will be similar to how he handled Georgia and all of this may evolve during the next 4-6 weeks or so.

 

Second, western European nations and the United States are furiously putting major sanctions in place against Russia.  This is understandable.  However, these sanctions will take time to have effect, and even then may only have minimal effect on Russia, while they may weaken the western European  economies. Taking strategic advantage of this situation, there are already signs that China, the Gulf countries, Iran, Pakistan, India will get diplomatically around the sanctions and make deals with Russia.

 

Third, afraid that Putin may take his invasion spree into other nations with the possible goal of reintegrating the lost Soviet empire, western Europe will increase defense expense and NATO will get more armed. Germany has already announced an increase to its defense budget, a major move for the first time after WWII, and other European nations are following suit. The United States and NATO will undoubtedly get more armed with the perception of the Russian threat.

 

Fourth, China and India, the two most populous nations, will watch and try to play brokers of peace and may slowly gain traction. They have already indicated this by abstaining in the vote against Russia in the UN Security Council. Israel and UAE will also gain traction as peace brokers, and even as we speak, Israel is in conversation with Russia and Ukraine, apparently trying to halt the war. As Christian Amanpour reported, after talking to the President of Ukraine, the countries with any leverage to influence Putin now are China, India, Israel, UAE, and this is only possible as these nations have shown neutrality.

 

Long-term

It is always hard to forecast the long-term, but we will likely see the following patterns emerge over the next 3-15 years.  

 

Russia may have troubles from within due to economic challenges and a change in leadership may eventually happen.  Given the changing global landscape, Russia’s economic woes, and its irresponsible wars, Russia is bound to weaken in the long run, and lose much of its influence on the global stage.

 

Ukraine will likely stay of out of NATO and be neutral or Russia-leaning. Whether this will be through a treaty with Russia or through a pro-Russian government is unclear. There is also the likelihood of Ukraine being a restless state with fragmented internal politics, and periodic violence.

 

Western European economy and influence will weaken, driven by aging population, slow economic growth, and increased defense expenditure. The US economy will stay fine as it is big and also practical, and will realign with new world dynamics, shifting its strategic interests increasingly toward Asia (with strong ties with Australia, Japan, and India as part of the QUAD), while gradually shifting attention away from Europe. However, the influence and power of the United States will gradually decrease, and the country will reconfigure itself in greater trade and strategic alignment with the rising powers, including China and India.

 

China’s economy and influence will grow. While the US and western Europe fear that China may get aggressive and may start conflicts with Taiwan or in the Indo-Pacific, it is unlikely that China will do anything that will jeopardize its economy or global influence.  An examination of China’s long history indicates that an underlying doctrine that drives its foreign policy is based on the ancient treatise of “Art of War” by Sun Tzu, and is a composite approach of multiple skills and strategies but largely focuses on winning without actually going to war.

 

India, the other populous country and growing major economy, will realign interests carefully, and position itself into the future - balancing relationships across all powers without taking sides. Going back seven decades, India has pursued a non-alignment strategy of not aligning itself with any major power, but staying independent and neutral, as far as possible. In the past 30 years, India has begun to modernize its economy, and build stronger ties with the United States and western Europe, Israel, and Japan. It does so while also keeping close ties with Russia, and Iran. The country also has an “look east” policy, and is building ties with several Asian nations. It is simultaneously strengthening its ties with the middle-eastern and African countries. The India-China relationship displays features of long-term cooperation, while some thorny issues remain. Notably, in their 5000-year history, the two countries have fought one brief war lasting days. It is, therefore, unlikely, that any of their disagreements  will spill over into major conflicts. India’s strategic lens is largely based on peaceful coexistence but with self-interest in mind.

 

In summary, while it is natural to view the Russia-Ukraine conflict in isolation, it is important to understand the larger and more complex geopolitical changes the world is going through. What is becoming clear is that the instruments for multilateral engagement and global peace that were put in place in the aftermath of WWII need serious revision to reflect the changing power dynamics. By 2040, China, India, and US will be the big forces, along with several LMIC nations, and new models of respectful multilateral cooperation among them will be needed. Furthermore, multilateral instruments, like the UN, will need revision to reflect the positions and preferences of the changed power dynamics to be effective in maintaining global peace.

 

 

 

 

 

While COVID defined 2021, many wonderful things continued to happen (Courtesy: Shahid Jameel)

Source: Adapted (by Shahid Jameel) from Martin Harbech, Group Director @Meta. 

1. China eradicated malaria.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/30/world/asia/china-malaria.html

2. NASA flew a helicopter (called “Ingenuity”) on Mars.

https://mars.nasa.gov/technology/helicopter/status/334/flying-on-mars-is-getting-harder-and-harder/

3.  Renewable energy grew faster than ever.

https://www.wri.org/insights/growth-renewable-energy-sector-explained

4.  Brain Computer Interface (BCI) advancements made it possible for a paralyzed man to write just by thinking (see picture), and for a monkey to play a computer game.

https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/05/14/1024907/musk-neuralink-man-monkey-mindpong-challenge-video-game/

5.  mRNA unlocked a new era of disease prevention.

https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n2744

6.  Clean fusion energy saw several major breakthroughs, including generating 700 times the US Energy Grid capacity.

https://thehackposts.com/physicists-just-broke-the-laser-fusion-record-generating-700-times-the-us-energy-grid/

7.  Scientists have proposed a new “fifth force”, potentially redefining Physics.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N79rTxce6bI

8. Electric cars reached a tipping point, breaking all records with global sales.

https://www.ev-volumes.com/

9.  Artificial Intelligence made huge progress on protein folding – one of biology’s biggest challenges.

https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/11/30/1012712/deepmind-protein-folding-ai-solved-biology-science-drugs-disease/

10. Scientists took steps towards unlocking the gains of CRISPR technology – and be able to “cure” genetic diseases.

https://www.labiotech.eu/best-biotech/crispr-technology-cure-disease/

11. Quantum computing took big leaps and broke the 100-quibit barrier.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/11/ibm-clears-the-100-qubit-mark-with-its-new-processor/

12. The largest wind farm ever built went live – on track to power 2.3 million homes in another year.

https://balkangreenenergynews.com/worlds-biggest-offshore-wind-farm-starts-producing-power/

13.  The age of ‘Space Tourism’ arrived, and the “James Webb Telescope” was launched after a 25-year preparation.

https://www.space.com/space-tourism-giant-leap-2021-milestones; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Webb_Space_Telescope

14. Research in plastic recycling had a breakthrough – turning plastic waste into oil (energy).

https://www.inverse.com/innovation/scientists-turn-plastic-into-oil

15. More than 9 billion COVID vaccine doses have been administered in 2021. But inequity remains as the next challenge

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/

 

Source: Adapted (by Shahid Jameel) from Martin Harbech, Group Director @Meta.

 

 

Merry Christmas or Happy Holidays - A Remarkable Encounter

 

I went to Mountain Park Aquatic Center for my daily swim. As I entered the door, there are was an elderly lady behind me. The door was heavy, so I held it open and let her in. When she entered, I offered that she went ahead of me to the front desk. She said, “No, you came first”.  So, I went in and swiped my entry card, and turned around and the lady smiled, and I said “Merry Christmas”. Her face beamed and she replied “Merry Christmas to you too”.

 

I went in and did my usual 3,000 meter swim, showered, changed, and came out. The lady was waiting for me. She came up and said, “I have baked Christmas cookies, I want to bring some for you, when will you be here next?”  I smiled, and said, “Thank you very much, I will be here tomorrow morning”. She said, “What is your name?”. I said “Venkat”, and she said, “Spell it for me”, which I did.

 

Then she continued, “Are you from India?”  I said, “Yes, I was born there”.  She wanted to talk, I could tell.

 

She started, “It made me very happy that you wished me Merry Christmas, none of that Happy Holidays stuff”. 

 

I smiled. She went on, “I wish my Jewish friends Happy Hannukah, and they wish me Merry Christmas. That is how it should be. None of this Happy Holidays.”  I said, “You have a point, I agree”. She then said, “What is the equal of Christmas in India?” I said, “India is a very old and large country, and has many religions, Christmas is celebrated widely, as are a multitude of festivals, in fact, too many.” Then she said, “Do you wish each other Merry Christmas?”.  I said, “In India, at least the India I grew up in, everyone wished everyone everything, and everyone celebrated everything. We grew up in a country with multiple religions, many languages, many cultures, and lots of all diversity.”  

 

“Oh, now I understand, why you so readily could say Merry Christmas. Where do you work?”  I said, “At Emory University”.  Then she said, “You know Emory has upset me. I read that students are now not allowed to do Christmas decoration in their dormitories. Do you think that is fair?”  I said, “I don’t really know this, but think everyone should be free to celebrate whatever they want, and everyone should happily participate in as many things as they wish.”   

 

“Yes”, she said, “What do you think of putting the Ten Commandments outside the court houses?”  “That”, I said, “is not a good idea, because a secular government should not be part of any religion or at least should keep equidistant from all religions. But civil society should celebrate pluralism, where all religions and even non-religion and atheism can thrive and be part of society, and everyone can participate in whatever they want. I think no culture belongs to any one group, all cultures belong to humanity and not to any one group.” 

 

She said, “I want to invite to my house, and get to know you more. You should tell more about all the festivals in India. I want to learn”. I said. “Sure, Merry Christmas”, and she said the same, and we parted, only to meet again.

Greek and Indian Mythology - Similarity and difference in one domain

 

My friend who is studying classical Greek mythology for fun shared her essay (in which she explores the relationship between humans and gods in classical Greek mythology) with me. I noticed some similarities/differences with Indian mythology. 

Clearly  (to me), the idea of  “Gods” is an anthropocentric construct, where human created them (gods) as projections of themselves and of the societies of  the time. 

The myth of Gods was a tool to impose social hierarchy, patriarchy, and order – while helping to preserve the privileges of the ruling classes or social elites. 

Some similarities and differences between Greek and Indian mythology. Both advanced systems for their time, and the mythology probably reflected the respective societies at that time. 

In Indian mythology, the gender  differences between Gods and Goddesses was less hierarchical and more  syncretic.  For example, in the idea of the Trinity (explained to me by Asha):  Brahma (the Creator) was paired with Saraswati (Goddess of Knowledge), Vishnu (the sustainer) with Lakshmi (Goddess of wealth), and Shiva (the destroyer) with Parvathi (Goddess of power). The roles of male and female  gods were different, some subtle deference, but considered of equivalent importance. Many of the Goddesses were powerful creatures. Perhaps,  reflecting greater matriarchy at that time. Another difference is that  while Gods and humans occupied different spaces and time scales (for  example, a year for a human was an hour for Gods – resulting in numbers that ran into billions), the Gods and humans occasionally shared the same space, notably, when Gods appeared on earth as “Avatars”   (while in Greek mythology, humans and gods were always segregated and inhabited different spaces) 

Overall, all this is very fascinating about how humans exert their imagination to create fiction to facilitate flexible cooperation and also social order.  

Without such hierarchy and social order, we probably won't survive (or thrive) as a species. But with it, comes oppression and inequality. How do we reconcile the tension? 

Venkat

 

COVID has ushered in a discontinuous moment in history

Much as we may view COVID as a transient phenomenon, I think that it has just brought out the issues and/or speeded up changes that were happening or had to happen anyway. In that sense, it a discontinuous moment in human history that we are going through, and all the assumptions and ideals we might have held or hold will get challenged.  I think it is going to usher in new ideals, new ethics, new ways of thinking, new ways of organizing, new ways of living, working, and playing. It is one of those agnostic, ruthless, and unforgiving techno-humanity moments in a fast globalizing world, and we are in for shocks and changes more profound than what industrialization brought to agrarian societies.

 

I for one, do not believe that “business as usual” or “plans for the future” will serve us or anybody well, and neither do I believe that the ethics, goals, institutions, and structures that worked in the past are going to be able to withstand the coming age, and will all be forced to adapt to new norms. That new norm, I believe, will be heavily driven by complexity, nonlinear processes, paradoxes, and network-driven unpredictable dynamic change propelled chaotically by information and its transfer. 

 

As I think about it, a few qualities are going to become important: among them personal resilience, agnosticism, syncretism, adaptability, flexibility, proactiveness, creativity, and ability to interpret any information to new context and to articulate to any audience in a way that the message sinks. Fixed positions and top-down decision-making will suffer, and we are in an age that will herald the death of borders and fixed hierarchy – better to let go off them than to fight the tsunami of mega-change!

 

My friend Mo shared with me yesterday a couple of lines that I apparently wrote in an email in 2013……..(I was flattered that Mo would find my rambling from 10 years ago useful now!) 

“In a nonlinear system, one has to understand and accept paradoxes, have the emotional resilience to deal with it, and the creative ability to use it to achieving one’s goal. It is a bit like sailing, where we use the wind to get where we want, even if we have to zig-zag and go in the opposite direction for a while.” 

Venkat

 

 

Polyglot India

    The truth is what we call “India” is a massive polyglot of several thousands of “tribes” (based on religions,     languages, castes, other factors). The very fact that such a large population with such diversity was brought     together under a constitution and a functioning system was achieved is a huge testament to the founders.

A lofty tone of “unity in diversity” is the only way that place can survive, the moment populism is used to invoke divisions (for political gains), the place starts to regress and fragment. All through post-Independent history, various politicians have used divisive politics to win votes, but the big difference now is a very systematic process of creating a big chasm (sadly invoking religion) across a huge divide and also undermining the independent institutions that afforded some bulwark for democracy to succeed.

Some years ago, commemorating the 50th anniversary of modern India, the National Geographic described India as a political success and called it the “boldest experiment in democracy ever attempted”.

Undoing this is easy, and the price will be paid in ways unimaginable. All said and done, sense may yet prevail, and as Mrs. Gandhi once said in an interview “India somehow always manages to rise to the occasion even at the brink of self-created disaster” or as Edward Luce in his book “India: In Spite of the Gods” time again refers to the marvels of innovative survival that characterizes that place – may these truisms be true!

Venkat

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 Eid Mubarak 2021

As Eid sets a somber visitation on India this year, my mind travels back to some beautiful memories growing up as a young boy in a simple India where humanity trumped superficial differences. My class-mates, Moosa and Osman would bring “Mittai” to school and share with their favorite friends (I remain one still). Basith Uncle (my uncle’s friend) would visit us and deliver sweets to my grandparents, and I would be among the first to taste the Halwa. Naseer Uncle (my mother’s close friend) would visit to greet “Jaya Sister” and would take the kids for a masala dosa. The highlight one year was an Eid party at the palatial home of my friend Farook Sait, and it was the sort of wealth that someone like me from a lower middle-class home would be dazzled by.

Brigade Road, Commercial Street, Avenue Road would all be so festive, and no one cared who was Muslim or who was Hindu or who was Christian. Everyone wished everyone else “Eid Mubarak”, and there was never any barrier between people. Humans just cared for one another. The same happened on Diwali or Christmas.

Now, the India of our past seems at loggerheads with the pluralism that has defined that civilization for millennia – but I was heartened from the many Eid greetings that I received today, and the best of them all from Rukhshana Basith Lakshman, who simply said “Pray for India, as we ache over the fact that more shrouds are sold on Eid than new clothes.” This too shall pass. Eid Mubarak to all.

– Venkat

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